We looked inside some of the tweets by @Nate_Cohn and found useful information for you.
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In a letter to GOP state leg leaders, an election official warns 100K PA voters could be disenfranchised b/c of a ruling rejecting naked ballots. It "set PA up to be the subject of significant post-election legal controversy, the likes of which we have not seen since FL in 2000." https://t.co/3ml96W00EX
Among likely voters in the nationwide sample, 50% say they will vote for Joe Biden, 40% for Donald Trump, 3% for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, and 2% for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. #mulawpoll
A rarity: a national Marquette Law poll. Biden+10 https://t.co/uQyIe14YMW
One thing that seems pretty real: Arizona to the left of Florida. It was true in 2018. With the exception of a fleeting period in July, it's been true in the polling for most of this cycle. Arizona is not a huge state, but under the right circumstances it's a very important shift
@Nate_Cohn Based on this conclusion, does it put skeptical light on the ABC poll of FL?
Well we just had a midterm election in which the gap between GA and FL got even smaller, with Abrams losing by 1.5 while GOP held Florida. We have to be pretty open-minded about where recent electoral trends might be taking us https://t.co/fu5y9WCqCI
@Nate_Cohn Wtf is going on with these polls? The RV/ LV split is larger than normal, no?
It's larger than normal, but a) LV/RV splits are pretty noisy if you depend on self-report as much as they do, and b) Biden probably is at an above average disadvantage in the Sun Belt, where Democrats depend more on lower turnout young and nonwhite voters https://t.co/M0erDKgf8F
In our polling, a fairly small chunk of 2016 voters stay home (this is normal), and they're replaced by a somewhat larger chunk of new voters who either sat out last time, moved, or are newly registered. This is normal, and the amount of churn in the electorate is similar to '16
@Nate_Cohn You do realize your polling is producing a highly unrealistic portion of new voters, and that almost all of Biden's entire lead comes from those new voters, right?
Biden leads 48 to 42 among voters who participated in the 2016 election This group of respondents is R+2, 32-30 2016 vote: Trump 45, Clinton 43 https://t.co/xkDcZkdevn
COMING TOMORROW: Georgia #GeneralElection. In our JULY poll, Prez race btw. @realDonaldTrump & @JoeBiden was tight. @SenDavidPerdue led Jon @Ossoff in regular Senate race. @SenatorLoeffler and @RepDougCollins led pack in open-field #SpecialElection. https://t.co/4HHdA2ZqY8 https://t.co/67S7UCVQCZ
Look, regardless of the outcome, 80-100k or more PA ballots being tossed out on a technicality is a foreseeable train wreck. Perhaps more national news outlets should be picking this up? https://t.co/wX65ghFUgP