Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

Followers278.7K
Following1.1K

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
Joined on January 14, 2012
@Nate_Cohn Statistics

We looked inside some of the tweets by @Nate_Cohn and found useful information for you.

Inside 100 Tweets

Time between tweets:
2 hours
Average replies
48
Average retweets
360
Average likes
929
Tweets with photos
10 / 100
Tweets with videos
0 / 100
Tweets with links
0 / 100

Rankings (sorted by number of followers)

211. in country United States and category Writer

826. in category Writer

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And since it's becoming a tradition of sorts: IA: R+3 party ID, Trump+8 in recalled vote among '16 voters TX: R+6, Trump+8 GA: even, Trump+8

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Today, Trump fares better in polls of the tipping point states Tomorrow, NYT/Siena in Texas, Georgia, Iowa https://t.co/25zQNpfUd5

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In a letter to GOP state leg leaders, an election official warns 100K PA voters could be disenfranchised b/c of a ruling rejecting naked ballots. It "set PA up to be the subject of significant post-election legal controversy, the likes of which we have not seen since FL in 2000." https://t.co/3ml96W00EX
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In a letter to GOP state leg leaders, an election official warns 100K PA voters could be disenfranchised b/c of a ruling rejecting naked ballots. It "set PA up to be the subject of significant post-election legal controversy, the likes of which we have not seen since FL in 2000." https://t.co/3ml96W00EX

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Quoted @MULawPoll

Among likely voters in the nationwide sample, 50% say they will vote for Joe Biden, 40% for Donald Trump, 3% for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, and 2% for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. #mulawpoll

A rarity: a national Marquette Law poll. Biden+10 https://t.co/uQyIe14YMW

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One thing that seems pretty real: Arizona to the left of Florida. It was true in 2018. With the exception of a fleeting period in July, it's been true in the polling for most of this cycle. Arizona is not a huge state, but under the right circumstances it's a very important shift

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Quoted @B_M_Finnigan

WHERE IS IT, NATE

*looks at data* nope not here https://t.co/WvoKOZJHIx

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Quoted @GatorPetrol

@Nate_Cohn Based on this conclusion, does it put skeptical light on the ABC poll of FL?

Well we just had a midterm election in which the gap between GA and FL got even smaller, with Abrams losing by 1.5 while GOP held Florida. We have to be pretty open-minded about where recent electoral trends might be taking us https://t.co/fu5y9WCqCI

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In all seriousness, there was a mere 4-5 point gap between GA and PA/FL in 2016. If Biden has a modest lead in PA/FL, he ought to be highly competitive in GA

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Quoted @thorsson_john

@Nate_Cohn In what universe is Georgia this close but PA, AZ and FL aren’t out of Trump’s reach?

the one we've been living in since 2016 https://t.co/aPAV6PGOdf

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Trump a narrow edge in Georgia, per Monmouth. +1 with registered voters +2 or +5 in high or low turnout likely voter universes https://t.co/JETeZeKM6f

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Quoted @AstorAaron

@Nate_Cohn LV/RV split is hard to figure. Florida is not going to be R+5. It was R+1 in 2016.

You should be very open to Florida being R+5 by party ID; in fact, our July poll--with Biden up 6--did find R+5, IIRC. https://t.co/kqMtO0rJtu

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Quoted @mookcooks

@Nate_Cohn Wtf is going on with these polls? The RV/ LV split is larger than normal, no?

It's larger than normal, but a) LV/RV splits are pretty noisy if you depend on self-report as much as they do, and b) Biden probably is at an above average disadvantage in the Sun Belt, where Democrats depend more on lower turnout young and nonwhite voters https://t.co/M0erDKgf8F

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ABC/Post has Trump ahead by 4 point in Florida and 1 point in Arizona. Considering the quality of the pollster, they're arguably Trump's best state poll results of the cycle. Even so, Biden still up on average in both states https://t.co/zxZbKQvfjD

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This churn does some interesting things. In almost every election, the voters who drop out (voted '16, not 20) lean Dem, but so do the voters who join. In our polling, for ex., Biden only leads 47-44 among the '16 voters who *remain* in the electorate

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In our polling, a fairly small chunk of 2016 voters stay home (this is normal), and they're replaced by a somewhat larger chunk of new voters who either sat out last time, moved, or are newly registered. This is normal, and the amount of churn in the electorate is similar to '16

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Quoted @Barnes_Law

@Nate_Cohn You do realize your polling is producing a highly unrealistic portion of new voters, and that almost all of Biden's entire lead comes from those new voters, right?

Biden leads 48 to 42 among voters who participated in the 2016 election This group of respondents is R+2, 32-30 2016 vote: Trump 45, Clinton 43 https://t.co/xkDcZkdevn

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For some reason, I have a lot of tweets in my 'interactions' at the moment about party identification. In our seven battleground state polls this month: Horserace: Biden 49, Trump 41 Party ID: R+1, 29 to 30 2016 vote: Trump 39, Clinton 38

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COMING TOMORROW: Georgia #GeneralElection. In our JULY poll, Prez race btw. @realDonaldTrump & @JoeBiden was tight. @SenDavidPerdue led Jon @Ossoff in regular Senate race. @SenatorLoeffler and @RepDougCollins led pack in open-field #SpecialElection.

https://t.co/4HHdA2ZqY8 https://t.co/67S7UCVQCZ

COMING TOMORROW: Georgia #GeneralElection. In our JULY poll, Prez race btw. @realDonaldTrump & @JoeBiden was tight. @SenDavidPerdue led Jon @Ossoff in regular Senate race. @SenatorLoeffler and @RepDougCollins led pack in open-field #SpecialElection. https://t.co/4HHdA2ZqY8 https://t.co/67S7UCVQCZ

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Quoted @HCTrudo

This seems like a... really big deal https://t.co/6uWXRR2oDI

Look, regardless of the outcome, 80-100k or more PA ballots being tossed out on a technicality is a foreseeable train wreck. Perhaps more national news outlets should be picking this up? https://t.co/wX65ghFUgP

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And obviously it goes without saying that someone could outperform the polls by more than 2!

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