Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

Followers487.5K
Following1.2K

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
Joined on January 14, 2012
@Nate_Cohn Statistics

We looked inside some of the tweets by @Nate_Cohn and found useful information for you.

Inside 100 Tweets

Time between tweets:
7 hours
Average replies
9
Average retweets
27
Average likes
130
Tweets with photos
11 / 100
Tweets with videos
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Tweets with links
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Fun Fact

In 2012, almost 1 million accounts were added to Twitter every day.

Here's a new #polisciresearch working paper & a 🧵.

We all know about 1/6 and the threat to American democracy that crystalized that day. 

Were there *changes* in American public opinion in the years before that foreshadowed the threat? 

Not really. 

https://t.co/YWID4MK9Y2 https://t.co/GBfYRT0yU2

Here's a new #polisciresearch working paper & a 🧵. We all know about 1/6 and the threat to American democracy that crystalized that day. Were there *changes* in American public opinion in the years before that foreshadowed the threat? Not really. https://t.co/YWID4MK9Y2 https://t.co/GBfYRT0yU2

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Good article about disbelief being at the root of belief in conspiracy theories from @TimHarford — did not know this bit before! https://t.co/1UlLs43STg https://t.co/Be5u9nfQZ6

Good article about disbelief being at the root of belief in conspiracy theories from @TimHarford — did not know this bit before! https://t.co/1UlLs43STg https://t.co/Be5u9nfQZ6

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1) New York losing a House seat by 89 people — that’s one exciting Census story. But for demographers, the bigger story was that New York came that close at all. I explored how this happened in a story today for @upshotnyt https://t.co/3Ndd7YncTp

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(in general, Obama's ability to mobilize Black voters was way more useful for Democrats than demographic change. Black voters are concentrated in many key states and far more Democratic)

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Quoted @Ser_Foxalot

@Nate_Cohn I thought Kerry ‘04 would have won on a later more diverse map?

He would win with Obama 08/12 black turnout, but he would not win with even 2020 demographics (and his actual turnout rate among black v white voters) https://t.co/u6s43K4192

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(That's because Obama's two big strengths were high black turnout and strength among white northerners, especially in the classic Midwestern battleground states where there's been little demographic change)

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I should also note that Obama '12--which is often attributed to racial demographic change--can hold all the way back into the 1980s

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In other words, Biden's quite modest gains among white voters since '16 did about as much for his chances as decades of demographic shifts

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If you start turning back the demographic clock, Biden quickly loses AZ/GA/NV and eventually loses PA/WI once you push the racial composition of the nation back a couple of decades. But even if you go back to the '80s, he's still winning more electoral votes than Clinton

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There are two elections that were at least arguably decided by racial demographics, at least judged over a multi-decadal period: Bush '00 and Biden '20. Obviously these were already exceptionally close; most anything can decide these races

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Here's a somewhat surprising estimate for you, based on census, exit poll and ANES data: Trump '16, Bush '04, Bush '88/84, Reagan 80 all had enough support to prevail if they had faced an electorate as diverse as it was in 2020.

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That second point--the R strength among nonwhite voters in red states like TX/FL--has a blue state corollary: D strength among nonwhite voters in blue states, which adds to the Dem E.C. challenge by padding Dem margins in IL/CA/NY/CT/NJ etc. without adding electoral votes

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--Most growth is among non-Black groups of nonwhite voters, who back Ds more modestly --Rs do fairly well among those groups in the red states that Ds need to flip --Ds made big, overlooked gains among white voters in many states where diversity might have otherwise been key

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Why rising diversity isn't quite helping Democrats as much as progressives hope or conservatives fear https://t.co/yAlMbeL7YL

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After a Brown prof said families can take “kids on trips and see friends and relatives this summer, a reader sent an email to her supervisors at the university suggesting that Oster be promoted to a leadership role in the field of ‘genocide encouragement’” https://t.co/NwMl938tjC

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I should note that most people who have thought hard about this, and I'd put myself in that category, believe that the CPS overestimates the college educated share of the electorate (and nonwhite turnout, as well)

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In 2016, Masscahusetts became the first state where four-year college graduates represented a majority of the presidential electorate. In 2020, it's joined by New York, Colorado and Maryland, with Vermont, New Jersey and Connecticut close behind at 48% or more

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White voters without a four-year college degree represented 40 percent of the electorate, down from 42 percent in 2016. That's even though the turnout rate among non-college whites increased more (6.3 pts) than whites with a degree or nonwhite voters with or without a degree

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In general, the story in this data is pretty consistent with what else we've seen; no big reevaluations required. But we're getting pretty close to the end of the post-2020 data wave, and so we're getting near the time to start the take machine back up again

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